When the Art of the Deal Meets the Art of War
and that of strategic displacement.
The Deal as a Weapon: the Trump Method Revisited
“I fight when I feel I’m getting screwed, even if it’s costly and difficult and highly risky.” Donald Trump
D. Trump’s economic playbook is built on a core principle: keep your opponent off balance in order to impose your terms. This approach is inspired by his bestseller “The Art of the Deal”, where everything hinges on power dynamics. In Washington, this translates into the brutal imposition of unilateral tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods, in the name of a certain concept of reciprocity.
This impact was immediate: equity markets corrected, consumer and business confidence faltered. In the wake of this instability, the dollar slid and long-term interest rates spiked. The economic impact of the tariffs has less to do with their scale than with the uncertainty they generate and the growing concerns over the independence of key US institutions, first and foremost the Fed.
D. Trump is banking on maximum disruption, hoping to force quick concessions. However, this transactional approach fails to fit into an overall strategy. It reflects a logic of direct confrontation where victories are public and setbacks are denied. Crucially, it also presumes that the opponent is playing by the same rules.
China: Waging War without Fighting
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” Sun Tzu
China however is playing a different game. While Washington seeks confrontation, Beijing is cultivating influence.. As economist Y. Huang notes, China resists pressure-based negotiations. Its response is structural: accelerate technological self-reliance, diversify trade and build strategic autonomy.
This attitude is directly inspired by Sun Tzu, for whom the art of war is to win without fighting. As K. Mahbubani observes, Beijing behaves more like a Go player: patient, methodical, accepting small sacrifices to better control the whole chessboard. Each move fits into a broader vision.
This strategy is already bearing fruit. Despite being affected by trade tensions, the IMF notes that China is actively pursuing regional integration and reconfiguring its value chains. It’s not about tit-for-tat retaliation, but about making the Chinese economy less vulnerable to external pressures..
What's Really at Stake: a War over Time
This opposition reveals a deeper divide: a struggle between a dominant power, the United States, and a rising one, China. Despite its immense assets, America seems to lack a clear, long-term strategy for dealing with Beijing’s growing power.
Its repeated use of the dollar as a tool for unilateral sanctions is steadily undermining a cornerstone of the international order. In turn, in order to circumvent the logic of containment, China is multiplying its economic alliances, notably through its “Belt and Road Initiative” (the New Silk Roads). Rather than causing a sudden rupture, it is gradually shifting the world’s economic center of gravity.
In such an uncertain environment, many investors are understandably jittery. More than ever, Sun Tzu’s wisdom reminds us that clear long-term objectives, formalized in a coherent strategic allocation, are the foundation of any winning approach. In investing, as in military strategy, vision is everything. And while the unpredictability of American strategy is shaking up the global order, it is also opening up. In this context, a well-calibrated use of derivatives allows us to maintain exposure to
equity markets, the primary drivers of long-term value creation, while protecting ourselves from extreme volatility.
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